A persistent, dough-based theory is making the rounds again: that a surge in pizza delivery orders near the Pentagon can signal looming military action. Dubbed the “Pentagon Pizza Index” (also referred to interchangeably as the “Pentagon Pizza Report” and “Pentagon Pizza Theory”) the thesis resurfaced after Israel’s June 13, 2025, drone strike on Iran, an attack some internet sleuths claim was “predicted” by a spike in orders at nearby Papa John’s and other chains.
What is the Pentagon Pizza Theory?
The Pentagon Pizza Theory suggests a strange but oddly specific idea: when war looms, D.C.’s pizza joints get slammed.
The concept dates back to the early 1990s, when Domino’s franchise owner Frank Meeks noticed spikes in Pentagon-area delivery orders during military events. He famously said pizza sales surged right before Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. It happened again, he claimed, during Clinton’s impeachment hearings in 1998.
The theory resurfaced in 2024, thanks in part to TikTok sleuths and a surge in political memes. In August, former New York legislator Ben Geller pointed to an unusually busy local pizza chain while tensions simmered in the Middle East. That moment breathed new life into what many now call the Pentagon Pizza Report, and was fanned by the flames of the Pentagon Pizza Report account on X (@PenPizzaReport), which also launched in August 2024.
Supporters of the theory argue that high-level Pentagon staff stay late during international crises. This is because they are often too busy to cook or go out for a meal. Their assistants, the theory goes, frantically order pizza, creating a noticeable uptick in delivery demand. Google search results showing restaurants as “extremely busy” or “busier than usual” near the Pentagon are now taken as ominous signs.
While this theory has no hard evidence, it has captivated politically engaged corners of the internet. And it’s not just pizza: users noted that nearby gay bars had the opposite trend with quieter nights.
This fuels the speculation that the late-night work crowd shifted from nightlife to war planning. Theoretically, then, when gay bars have a higher level of activity, nothing is happening at the Pentagon to raise concerns.
Pizza activity before Israel’s drone strikes on Iran
Interest in the Pentagon Pizza Report theory spiked again on June 13, 2025, after Israel launched a wave of drone strikes on Iran. These strikes targeted nuclear sites and reportedly killed high-ranking Iranian commanders. The Pentagon Pizza Report account on X posted that several D.C. pizza restaurants were marked “extremely busy” in the days leading up to the strikes. Papa John’s, in particular, showed a spike in activity around the Pentagon.
Iran retaliated with about 100 drones, most of which were reportedly intercepted. Reports emerged that six nuclear research scientists were among the casualties.
Meanwhile, political observers debated whether the Pizza Meter had once again signaled impending conflict. Although the Pentagon Pizza Report can’t predict specific targets or times, its defenders argue the signal was there: D.C. was stress-ordering pizza again.
Still, skeptics rightly point out the theory’s weaknesses, including Photoshopped screenshots. High delivery volume can stem from anything: bad weather, a sports game, or even payday. Others have pointed out that it could be connected to the upcoming 250th anniversary U.S. Army parade planning for June 14, which is shutting down much of the National Mall.
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